Why Nigeria’s Growing Reserves Must Back a Tech-First Economic Strategy, by Shuaib S. Agaka
When Central Bank Governor Yemi Cardoso announced that Nigeria’s external reserves had surged to $40.11 billion in July 2025—enough to cover about 9.5 months of imports—the news was met with optimism. In an economy where foreign exchange scarcity often dictates the rhythm of business, such a healthy buffer represents a rare moment of financial breathing space. Yet the deeper question is whether this period of stability will be used to reinforce the same oil-dependent economic model that has defined Nigeria for decades, or whether it will serve as a springboard for a tech-first transformation capable of securing the country’s place in the global digital economy.
Nigeria’s reserves still rely heavily on oil exports, a revenue stream that has proven unstable time and again. Oil prices remain subject to the whims of geopolitics, fluctuating global demand, and the accelerating push toward renewable energy. Basing long-term economic stability on crude oil is like building a house on shifting sand—it may stand tall today but risks collapse when the tides turn. A $40.1 billion reserve is not merely a financial cushion; it is an opportunity to fund the transition to non-oil revenue streams. Among the available options, no sector offers more scalability, global relevance, and long-term returns than technology.
The country’s tech ecosystem, powered by fintech unicorns, emerging AI startups, and a growing digital services industry, already contributes significantly to GDP, yet its full potential remains untapped. Nigerian developers, designers, cybersecurity experts, and AI engineers are already providing services to clients across the globe, and with better infrastructure and targeted funding, these exports could rival the earnings from remittances. At the same time, local manufacturing of tech hardware remains minimal, with laptops, smartphones, and networking equipment overwhelmingly imported. Strategic investment in localized production would reduce foreign dependency and keep much-needed forex within the economy. Strengthening digital infrastructure through reliable broadband, data centers, and cloud services would provide the backbone for scaling digital businesses, while targeted funding for AI and other emerging technologies could ensure Nigeria is not just a passive consumer in the next wave of technological disruption.
Currency stability is a vital ingredient for tech growth, providing the predictability that allows businesses to plan effectively and investors to commit capital with confidence. A robust reserve position serves as a shock absorber against naira volatility, making Nigeria more attractive to both domestic and foreign tech investors. It also allows the Central Bank of Nigeria to manage import costs for essential tech equipment such as servers, cables, and robotics components, ensuring innovation is not stifled by sudden currency swings or inflated import bills.
For this transformation to happen, policymakers must think beyond short-term stability and embrace a deliberate strategy that positions technology as a central pillar of economic diversification. This could involve dedicating a portion of the reserves to technology development funds that are accessible to both startups and established firms, offering forex incentives for companies that export digital services, supporting the creation of local manufacturing hubs for computer hardware and renewable energy technologies, and building strategic partnerships with nations leading in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and semiconductor production.
Nigeria’s $40.1 billion in reserves offers a moment of rare leverage, but it is not a guarantee of lasting prosperity. Reserves can erode quickly if oil prices fall or global economic shocks strike. This is why the current breathing room should be used not just to finance imports or manage currency stability but to invest in the systems, industries, and skills that will permanently reduce the nation’s dependence on oil. The oil age gave Nigeria its forex backbone; the digital age can give it economic independence. The choice is clear—use the reserves to maintain the status quo, or channel them into building a future where Nigeria exports not only barrels of crude but also ideas, innovation, and technology to the world.
Shuaib S. Agaka
